Latest emission targets from major nations are not yet enough to safeguard against a mass humanitarian disaster, the Global Humanitarian Forum said today. The targets announced, however, fall only just short of what is needed. Small concessions from the largest economies would be enough to make the difference between certain catastrophe, and a safe, sustainable planet.
The latest pre-Copenhagen emission targets imply that global emissions of greenhouse gases will increase by approximately 5% by 2020 compared with today (2005 levels). That would mean surpassing the internationally endorsed maximum increase in global temperatures of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), according to calculations by the IPCC*. Anything above that level would create a volatile humanitarian catastrophe.
“Climate change is already highly dangerous at well below one degree of warming. Two degrees would be catastrophic,” says Forum President Kofi Annan. “We cannot afford to fail.”
To avoid the most hazardous climate change effects, emissions should peak prior to 2015 and be falling at 2020, due to the nature of the climate system.
“We are so close now,” said Global Humanitarian Forum CEO Walter Fust today. “The urgency to conclude an agreement is absolute. Mass migration, mass sickness and mass death cannot be an option. Ambitious long-term targets are important, but almost irrelevant for hundreds of millions of people if sufficient action is not taken before 2020.”
The Forum’s May 2009 Human Impact Report: Climate Change* stated that global warming is already the most significant emerging humanitarian challenge today. Regardless of steps taken, humanitarian impacts of climate change will increase by between 50 and 100% by 2030 due to the warming momentum already exerted on the global climate system.Even if a Copenhagen agreement is able to limit warming to 2 degrees, large-scale climate change adaptation measures will be necessary to minimize these impacts among vulnerable communities. Poor communities require substantial financial assistance in order to adapt.
The fact that all major economies have now committed to quantified emission cuts demonstrates a united global conviction to stabilize the climate. That is now further underscored by the expected presence of numerous global leaders at the Copenhagen summit next week. As any concessions have a multiplying effect, incremental further increases in regional or national commitments would be enough to breach the shortfall to ensure climate safety for all. Groups and nations are urged to demonstrate leadership and flexibility, especially those with conditional upper targets for emission reductions.
ENDS
NOTES TO EDITORS
The Global Humanitarian Forum
The Global Humanitarian Forum is an independent international organization based in Geneva, Switzerland that brings together leaders from government, civil society, international organizations, academia, business and other sectors of society to help solve humanitarian challenges. Founded in 2007, the Forum is headed by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and currently focuses on the human impact of climate change.
*Human Impact Report: Climate Change
In May 2009, the Forum issued the Human Impact Report: Climate Change – the Anatomy of a Silent Crisis. It was the first comprehensive report to document the global impact of climate change on human society today. According to the report, each year climate change is already responsible for around 300,000 deaths and causes the displacement of some one million people. The majority of current impacts are due to the negative effect of climate change on major health challenges such as malnutrition and malaria. Over 90% of these impacts affect developing countries alone. Poor countries and communities require significant external assistance in order to minimize the suffering and damages caused, since little or no local capacity to deal with this additional burden exists.
Acronyms
*IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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